December* S&P
Prices are chomping at the bits as the can almost taste the top of the Gann square. I do not believe prices will shoot past 1475 despite the momentum behind them at this time. Support comes into play around 1420 should this market come under any selling.
NASDAQ 100 This index is dealing with the upper MOB and the upper parameter of the channel all at the same time. I do not see prices making much headway out of this area for the time being. We may need a setback toward 2765 first.
CURRENCIES
US Dollar Index
Prices dove over the few weeks and appear to be ready to waken buyers at the critical Gann level of 78,50. Just how much of a rally we can expect is difficult for me to gauge but I to not believe they will be able to move above 81.00.
December* Euro
The Euro run continues as prices extend their gains up just shy of 1.3200. Although the MOB implies an eventual move to 1.3550, prices read overextended. I expect an downward reaction at this time to relieve that condition;
December* J Yen
Go long this contract risking a close below 1.2785
December* B Pound
having reach the target and reading overextended, I would take mhy money to the bank. Liquidate long positions.
December* Cdn Dollar
No position.
December* Aussie Dollar
Continue to protect long positions against a close below 1.0580.
ENERGY
October Natural Gas
In line with my last commentary on this contract….
I believe we are in the wave 3 component of a small and incomplete Elliott impulse wave from the August low (X). That wave can be a component of the larger pattern up from the April low (Y). At this time I prefer to concentrate on the smaller wave as it develops. I would expect prices not to fall much below 2.89 before moving up to new highs for this move. Projections for that wave take it above the downtrend line and that would be a big accomplishment.
November* Natural Gas What I said in the October natural gas applies to the November too.
November Crude Oil Barely hanging on with its fingertips, this contract is still under the influence of the regression channel. Traders should remain bullish unless prices fail decisively. The MOB should not prove too difficult but 101.10 looks like the level from which we are apt to witness a downward reaction…prices are reading over extended. If and when 101.10 is dealt with then we can start looking at the possibilities of 104.00 and the top of the square at 110.00.
Metals
December Gold
Protect longs against a close below 1715.
December Silver
Prices are virtually at the target; the top of the Gann square and the MOB. place stop loss at a close below 33.10.
December Copper
The technical picture looks pretty strong. Prices sliced though the critical Gann line at 3.71 and promise to move even higher. It appears that an Elliott five wave sequence may has started at the May low of 3.26. I may be premature but I can justify an Elliott target for the longer term up at 4.29 to 4.40 but not in a straight line. When this market is given reason to move….it moves!!! Closer to home prices are currently in the first wave 3 target with the second and easily reachable second target at 4.09/4.13. The current momentum suggests prices have more upside room but are a bit overextended and demand a downward reaction soon. Officially, the trend has turned up as of September 9.
Agriculturals
December Corn
(unch) I would get ready to sell a reaction rally from current levels to about 799/800.
November Soybeans:
(unch) The chart indicates that prices continue confined to the channel. However I would liquidate on a clear break of that channel and that means on a close below 17.00.
December Wheat.
(unch)I believe wheat has one more fling before the big collapse. I would chance a risky trade of going long when a risk of a close below 848 becomes manageable.
Meats
October F Cattle*
(unch) Protect long positions against a close below 146.10
Octobert L Cattle
(unch) Go long this contract at current levels risking a close below 125.70.
Octobert L Hogs
Go long his contract risking a close below 72.65
Softs
December* Cocoa:
(unch) Short this contract risking a close above 2675.
December* Coffee:
Go long this contract risking a close below 178.80
October Sugar
No positions.
