FINANCIALS
September Mini S&P
Prices continue trading within the parameters of the regression channel. they appear to be headed for the overhead MOB but..are currently fighting to move above the highs made last Spring. Prices are currently overextended so a downward reaction is called for; possibly to the 1400 Gann line. Hang on to longs and let the chart take you out on a stop based on a close below 1390.
NASDAQ 100
This index has blazed through the 2710 Gann line but is now facin a tougher adversary…the top of the regression channel. I believe this index wants to test the waters at the MOB locations and I think they will succeed. The moment of danger for longs is a close below 2725. I urge a close eye on this index because it is currently overextended..
CURRENCIES
US Dollar Index
(Unch) It is unlikely that the critical Gann line at 81.45 will be broken at this time. This index is still trending up. It is temporarily locked between 84.00 and the critical Gann line at 81.45. Below that area we can see the bottom of the channel and the double MOBs.
September Euro (unch) Values reached the top of the channel and must decide if this is the extent of the rally or will we witness an upside breakout. My money says that prices will continue to follow the regression channel down. The MOBs indicate the upside possibilities if and when things change for the better for this currency.
September J Yen
protect short positions now again a close above 1.2675.
September B Pound
(unch) Stand aside as I anticipate a continued lateral movement since May.
September Cdn Dollar
let's try the short side of the Canadian dollar and risk a close above 1.0175
September Aussie Dollar
Continue to protect short positions against a close above 1.0535.
ENERGY
September Natural Gas
I do not expect prices to work much below the area of the 2.64 target and the MOB…at least for the near term. However, of concern to me is the fact that the upmove from the April low has taken on the form or a 3 wave move and not an impulse move. That is bothersome some because it implies a corrective move. If this market is to go into a protracted trading range, that range could be composed of 3 wave moves both up and down..
October* Natural Gas (unch) Here too prices snapped up to test the bottom of the channel. After exceeding that mark they turned down sharply. That turn around did not come as a surprise. I expect prices to extend down to about 2.66 before finding support. That number is close to the MOB so I believe they will hold there.
October Crude Oil (unch) Here too prices snapped up to test the bottom of the channel. After exceeding that mark they turned down sharply. That turn around did not come as a surprise. I expect prices to extend down to about 2.66 before finding support. That number is close to the MOB so I believe they will hold there.
November Crude Oil November crude shares the same technical story as the October contract.
Metals
December* Gold
(unch) This metal appears to be losing its glitter. Although this contract looks like it is breaking out to the upside of the triangle, I would not be a buyer unless it can close above 1639.
September Silver
(unch) Traders needing excitement for their thyroid might consider the long side risking a close below 26.70
September Copper
(unch) Protect short December positions against a close above 3.440.
Agriculturals
December Corn
(unch) I will assume long positions were not stopped out as the 7.89 close as being too tight to the 7.92 suggested stop.
November Soybeans:
(unch) Stopped out of new long positions. It is just as well because the chart looks a bit toppy. Since a triangle is a continuation pattern, it would not surprise me to see the chart make us long again.
December Wheat.
No positions.
Meats
October F Cattle*
Stopped out. Enough is enough.. No positions for now..
August L Cattle
Stopped out of long positions..
Softs
September Cocoa:
No positions. This contract may have a problem moving above 2490. Our next position will be in the December contract.
September Coffee:
(unch) Lower protective stop to a close above 168.25.
October Sugar
(unch) Short this contract risking a close above 21.60..
