FINANCIALS
September Mini S&P
Apparently what I perceived as an upside breakout was premature. We failed to see closes outside the channel.. It does pay sometimes, to give the chart a few days to evolve. The way it stands now, the channel is still in command and should exert pressure on this index. Support is expected to emerge at the 1285 Critical Gann level.
NASDAQ 100
(unch) If the downmove should be viewed as a correction, it can only by one leg of the correction. According to Elliott, a five wave move cannot be a correction but rather only one leg of a correction. Therefore the downmove from the high may be the A of a large ABC. Having said that, we can still see a very tradable B wave up. it may run into trouble on its way up at 2615.
CURRENCIES
US Dollar Index
9unch) The very recent price dip has relieved the overextended condition….and it did it from the lower MOB. The evidence is strong that the 84.00 MOB will be the next stop.
September* Euro
(unch) Even though coming out of an overextended state, This currency has more upside room. Should prices extend their gains further, I believe we will see sellers appear in the area of 1.2735. As for the downside, the 1.2200 MOB is yet untested.
Sep* J Yen
(unch) Protect short positions against a close above 1.2650.
Sep* B Pound
(unch) Go long this currency on a close above 1.5550 risking a close below 1.5450.
Sep* Cdn Dollar
(unch) Go long this contract risking a close below 96.90.
Sep* Aussie Dollar
(Cnch) Go long this contract risking a close below 98.15…
ENERGY
July* Natural Gas
I warned about natty gas making new near term lows for this move and making traders nervous. I would not get concerned unless prices fall below the upper parameter and close below it. In the meantime
the downmove from the May high has to be viewed as a downward reaction. Do not panic if long.
August* Natural Gas
The support that we expected at 2.45 caved in as prices were determined to test the top of the channel. We want to see the top parameter hold prices…2.20 +-.
July Crude Oil
Although it appears that prices are in the process of breaking out of the channel, it may be prudent to give it a day or so more to see what its intentions are. If it is decided to cover short and go long, it must be done with an eye toward reinstating short positions upon clearance of 86.00 on a close.
August Crude Oil
(unch)The recent downward momentum took prices into an overextended condition. I believe it was that condition that caused prices to stop the downmove where they did and attempt to rally. Prices could easily mount a reaction rally to the 90.00 level. Up to now, the trend is definitely down.
Metals
August* Gold
Gold may be setting up for an upside breakout from the regression channel. Since we already witnessed a few closes above the upper parameter, I would close out short positions. Traders with courage may reverse from short to long and risk a close or two below the channel…or below 1600.
July Silver
No positions.
July Copper
No positions but I am willing to short this market as close to 3.48 as it will allow.
Agriculturals
July Corn
Short this contact on a close below 5.91
July Soybeans:
Short this contract when a risk above 14.45 can be managed.
July Wheat.
Lower protective stop to a close above 6.40.
Meats
August* F Cattle
Short this contract risking a close above 161.20
August* L Cattle
Stopped out of long positions. Short this contract when a risk above 120.35 can be considered manageable..
Softs
July* Cocoa:
No positions.
July* Coffee:
(unch) Lower protective stop to a close above 155.20..
October* Sugar
Let us try the short side of this contract risking a close above 20.00. I realize we are late in selling but there was no manageable risk available until now.
